How To Pick Presidents

In her victory speech after winning the Ohio primary Hillary Clinton said:

"You know, they call Ohio a bellwether state. It’s a battleground state. It’s a state that knows how to pick a president."

She is correct that Ohio plays a significant role in picking presidents. Ohio picked Bush in 2000 and in 2004 by narrow margins—in both instances Ohio’s Electoral College votes determined the election. Ohio remains a large and diverse state that can go either direction in presidential elections. Our Congressional delegation is a mix of republicans and democrats. Ohio is not as representative of the country as it once was (most significantly because the economic downturn has hit Ohio worse than any other state save Michigan). Nevertheless, any presidential candidate for either party will find it difficult to win the White House without winning Ohio.

The problem with Clinton’s statement is that Ohio chose poorly in the last two presidential elections. In tragic lapses of judgment Ohio chose George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. We never would have had to think about hanging chads or thrown the election to the Supreme Court in 2000 if merely 89,000 Ohio voters had chosen differently that year. It is pointless to speculate about how a President Gore would’ve performed as the 43rd President. But given the stunningly poor performance of the current President it is unlikely that Gore would’ve been comparably disastrous. Regardless of how she feels about Gore, it is shocking that Clinton believes Ohio knows how to pick a President.

I think it is proper to view the Clinton primary victory as consistent with Ohio’s recent presidential judgment. If Bush was strike one and two, I think the Hillary vote was a foul ball straight back over home plate. Let us hope that Ohio doesn’t swing and miss with McCain in November.

P.S., He's black.

The whisper campaign by Hillary Clinton and her proxies has grown nearly silent since the South Carolina primary when the tactic seemed to backfire. But it was a good test because almost certainly Barack Obama will face similar nasty politicking in the general election. It is heartening that democratic primary/caucus voters have not fallen for those who would appeal to America's lesser tendencies. Nevertheless, the Rove-inspired machine that gave us Swiftboating and McCain's bastard children is certainly going to remind voters that Barack is black. Primaries are good practice for the pressures of the campaign and the office. A significant portion of Obama’s appeal is his comfort in his multiracial skin. In polite company people will ask, ‘is the country ready for a black president?' This is code for, ‘some people are not ready for a black man as president', which is code for a lingering fear of a black planet. Welcome to the terrordome will be the subtext of fear in the republican campaign against Obama. For a taste of what good people will have to endure this fall, we can look to a recent demagogic racial appeal by Governor Huckabee:

You don't like people from outside the state coming in and telling you what to do with your flag. In fact, if somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we'd tell 'em what to do with the pole; that's what we'd do.

The language is coded, but it is an authentic old-school racist appeal. The Confederate Battle flag was first flown over the state capitol in 1962 in defiance of the civil rights movement. When Huckabee channels the spirit of the Stars & Bars or Clinton reminds us that he’s black, they are purposefully provoking and exploiting a racialized ugliness that probably will win some votes. We can expect plenty more of that this fall. Let us hope that candidate Obama can move us collectively closer to the better angels of our nature.

Joe McCarthy would be proud

After spending a small fortune, Mitt Romney yesterday bowed out of the GOP presidential nomination contest. It is particularly ironic that the republicans rejected a religiously faithful, enormously successful businessman, with a good suit and beautiful family. In many ways he is the embodiment of what republicans stand for. Unfortunately for Mitt, he came off as smug and pandering. He should have run from his strengths instead of acting like a rabid social conservative. But he felt that GOPers wouldn't trust a Massachusetts governor no matter hope competent at business. So instead of emphasizing his business acumen he acted like an ideologue. So it goes.
As if to emphasize his rejection of pragmatism, he offered up a screed for the Conservative Political Action Committee:

If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. . . And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.

Joe McCarthy would be proud. This is probably a signal of the republican campaign to come. Fearmongering over terrorism worked well in 2004 and the republicans seem to be banking on that tactic again. Nevermind that Clinton, Obama, and the democratic Congress are not interested in a quick withdraw from Iraq, it is electorally rewarding to foment fear. So Romney goes out in an embarrassing redux of Red Scare hysteria. We once feared communists in out midst now we are being baited into fearing those who would surrender to terrorism. I am deeply embarrassed for Romney if he actually believes this nonsense.

Obama v. McCain

It'll be Obama v. McCain for President of the United States. Huckabee will put up a fight but republicans are going to settle for McCain. Obama will get the momentum necessary to win even Ohio and Pennsylvania. So there you; my predictions. :-)